A quote from Vladmir Lenin of the Soviet Union brilliantly describes the present-day situation of American politics, “There are decades when nothing happens, there are weeks in which a decade happens.”
The Trump Story: Man of Destiny?
The GOP has become a strong unified front behind a political leader of deserved mythical proportions who has emerged from the detritus foisted upon him by his enemies.
The lightning bolt quick, spectacular chain of events occurred in close succession in Trump’s favor with the added bonus when prominent Democrat supporters successfully persuaded President Biden to drop his re-election efforts.
Counter-intuitively these events may give the GOP faithful the illusion that Trump’s election victory in November is assured giving a role-reversal illusion that Trump is the incumbent and Harris the challenger.
Kamala Harris: Front runner or Placeholder?
Everyone is quite familiar with Trump’s well-publicized CV as businessman and US President, but few have an overview of Kamala Harris’s professional experience.
The following chart entitled Who Is Kamala Harris?, is the CV of Kamala Harris provided Statista.
Two Underdogs
In a strange way, both candidates are underdogs. Trump has overcome a litany of obstacles and literally a hail of lead, to secure the GOP nomination for president. For this reason, he has gained the admiration and perhaps the votes, of the wavering and undecided.
As the first female and non-white vice president, Harris is at the cusp of securing an overwhelming vote for nomination for president from the Democrats at the DNC in Chicago in late August.
Since Biden’s withdrawal from seeking re-election, she has secured windfall political contributions over $126 million.
Historically, incumbents rarely “go quietly into the night”. The incumbent (or incumbent party) is resource-rich, well-positioned and maintains the high ground from where they can more easily defend and counterattack.
However, Harris’s popularity rating, at the same depth level as Biden’s, has yet to show an increase in altitude.
Trump: Pros & Cons
Trump has reached the ultimate of fearlessness. After a contentious first term (2012-2016) the world has changed dramatically. Sitting on the sidelines has provided a literally battle-hardened Trump a grand finale opportunity as the savior of democracy as interpreted by “divine intervention” on the July 13 assassination attempt.
The downside is that, lost in this emotional surge, if Trump wins, he’ll be a one-term president. His political Achilles heel is his age (78) and eventual cognitive slippage during that term.
For this reason, this explains why so many high-ranking GOP politicians, Trump’s former and far younger adversaries, are jumping enthusiastically aboard the Trump Express to get an inside track for the 2028 presidential election. Again, the incumbent party has its advantages.
Harris: Pros & Cons
With respect to the public optics and actual performance the past 3½ years, Harris can barely be considered qualified even as Vice President, a period replete with nonsensical ramblings during interviews and presentations.
On the other hand, there’s the possibility that she’s following the old adage of the student/underling not to usurp or outshine one’s master, which I believe she’s done a masterful job.
Biden is still president but in title only. One wonders whether Harris has actually been the person (albeit figurehead) behind the Oval Office curtain as the working de facto head of state while Biden has been the de facto lame duck.
For this reason, it’s plausible that her “bimbo” behavior has been a ruse, playing the fool, so as not to challenge Biden in any shape or form.
Another example is the young bride who marries the elderly wealthy man, craftily pre-positioning herself to inherit the monetary and political rewards. It seems like this is a role she reprises with Academy Award winning skill.
She’s a prosecutor in her professional DNA with 3½ years of on-the-job, high level political training. During this time it’s possible that she has been groomed since Biden’s election win in 2020 who was already suffering cognitive issues.
Now unchained and unrestrained at the highest levels while following the cues of her handlers, she could pose a serious threat to the Trump-JD Vance ticket.
Vice Presidents Emerging from the Shadows
During the latter half of the 20th century, several low-key, underestimated VPs have emerged from the shadow of their bosses to win elections and become dominant during their term(s). These include:
· Harry Truman succeeded Franklin D. Roosevelt after his death in April 1945 and won the election in an upset in 1948.
· Lyndon B. Johnson succeeded the assassinated John F. Kennedy in 1963 and won the election in 1964. He declined a re-election nomination in March 1968.
· George H.W. Bush succeeded President Reagan who reached his maximum two-term limit along with neurocognitive decline, winning the 1988 election.
Indeed, Harris cannot compare with the above VPs. However, her Democratic Party political machinery is far more powerful with 21st century media tools and oligarch level donations than either of the Democratic or GOP of the aforementioned VP victories.
Democrats’ Frantic Damage Control
In the meantime, the Democrats’ abysmal succession planning to replace Biden as late as July is baffling. They’ve made a perilous high stakes gamble of losing an election with a late replacement to maintain their position in the White House.
I believe that there’s an intense power struggle within the Democratic Party. They are desperate to stop the internal political hemorrhaging and establish a coherent narrative.
Even Lyndon B. Johnson (LBJ), a headstrong, proud Texan, for political and personal reasons, had the sense to announce that he wasn’t running for re-election in March (1968). Although the Democrats lost the election by a hair’s breath, it provided the Democrats enough time to nominate a candidate (Hubert Humphrey) to successfully challenge Richard Nixon that November.
Pre-Election Day for President Kamala
Although Joe Biden announced that he won’t seek re-election, he is still the president until January 2025. Nonetheless, his declining neurocognitive abilities and other health-related matters have a high risk of a “Niagara Falls trajectory” that may incapacitate him.
If this should occur before the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in late August or Election Day, Kamala Harris would become president. It’s anyone’s guess whether her elevation to president in this timeframe will boost or hinder her chances of winning the election.
New Political Landscape
Like a cinematic political thriller, the campaign landscape has changed profoundly different within the last month. It began with Biden’s debate debacle, the attempted assassination of Trump, followed by Biden’s withdrawal for re-election and the emergence of VP Harris to the forefront.
The upcoming election results will be determined along the lines of the late baseball Hall of Fame manager Tommy Lasorda who said, “No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference.”
In any election, both the Democrats and GOP have their ardent supporters and will vote along the party lines regardless of the weakness of their candidate(s). It’s the other third of the citizenry who they have to win over.
Until the elections take place and the votes are tallied, no one has won or lost yet.
Conclusions & Takeaways
The upcoming presidential election will be far closer than anyone can imagine, a possible nail-biter. Whichever party loses, there will be bitterness and endless accusations of improprieties.
Expect an invigorated Democrat party as Kamala Harris will be an unexpected handful to the Trump campaign team.
Thanks in large part to Americans’ short-term memory, earlier alleged transgressions by Trump and bimbo-like behavior by Harris, have already been forgotten. It’s a sprint to the finish. Nothing counts except the here & now.
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The Cerulean Council is a NYC-based think-tank that provides prescient, beyond-the-horizon, contrarian perspectives and risk assessments on geopolitical dynamics and global urban security.
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